Monday, May 16, 2011

You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here


Closers seem to come and go as the season progresses, and in a sport where nothing is guaranteed, it remains the position with the most shuffle from April to October. Here is Part I (Part II|Part III) of the Guru's Top 40 Closing Options going forward this season, based on stats already compiled and the outlook for the rest of the 2011 season.

1. ^Mariano Rivera, NYY; 13 SV, 1.45 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 7.71 K/9: What can anyone say?  Really. Mo is the best closer to ever toe the rubber; the closer who consistently has ice running through his veins in every situation.  As a Yankee fan, I've been spoiled by such a late inning option, something that most fans never have and never will be able to experience. Even in his twilight years, Mo has not skipped a beat and is not only the most reliable closer going forward in 2011, but the most reliable closer of all time.

2. Brian Wilson, SF; 12 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.90 K/9: After a shaky start to the season upon returning from the DL, Wilson has simply been on fire. #Fearthebeard has not allowed a run in the month of May and has seen his K/9 rate improve all the way to 10.90 on the season. Let the raging continue.

3. Heath Bell, SD; 9 SV, 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.20 K/9: "Saved by the Bell" took a new meaning going into the 2009 season. Since then he has done nothing but continue to impress and get batters out with ease in the 9th inning. The only downside is a possible trade to a contender, meaning an ousting from the closer role. Until then, there are not many guys you would rather hand the ball to in the MLB.

4. Carlos Marmol, CHC; 8 SV, 1.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.88 K/9: Simply the definition of an overpowering strikeout pitcher, or in other words what every team is looking for out of their closer. Marmol has been lights out all year, and with his WHIP sitting around one it erases any possible concerns you could have about him.

5. Neftali Feliz, TEX; 8 SV, 0.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.11 K/9: The strikeouts are down, and a brief DL stint has his save total a little lower than it should be, but this guy can throw the baseball. Yet, the Guru's crystal ball presents an interesting scenario that could change things: Texas deals for SD closer Heath Bell, having Bell set up for Feliz this season, while prepping Neftali to be the ace of the staff come next year and entrusting Bell with the closer duties. When I said change things, I didn't mean for the worse.

6. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS; 7 SV, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.34 K/9:  Oh, how I hate this guy. He is such a prick. I've never even met him and would take an ax to his right arm if I could get away with it. With that being said, he's still one of the top closing options in baseball and has seemed to find some of what he had lost the past two seasons. Only time will tell, but it doesn't help matters that the hard throwing Daniel Bard, who I personally love and think can close in this league for a long time to come, is breathing down Papelbum's neck.

7. Joakim Soria, KC; 6 SV, 4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.52 K/9: What a disappointment thus far. Soria has one of the filthiest looking curves I have ever seen, and a knack for getting out of the pressure cooker unharmed. Not so much this year. I believe he will turn it around and those eyesore ERA and WHIP numbers will go down.  He will finish as a top 10 closer when it is all said and done. Hell...the Royals actually aren't that bad this season, a first during Soria's promising career.

8. Leo Nunez, FLA; 14 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.71 K/9: This may come as a surprise to some, but Leo Nunez is the league leader in saves with 14. Leo has thrived in a big way with no serious competition for the closer role in his path. He has had two poor outings this season, forcing his ERA a little higher then we would like to see out of a closer. Florida also seems to be a better team then expected, which can only help his value. At this point it is fair to say he holds the most value based on draft position out of all closers in Fantasy. I knew this. I wish I started writing this blog before last week so you all could have known as well.

9. Craig Kimbrel, ATL; 10 SV, 2.29 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 14.19 K/9: The whole Kimbrel/Venters split to start the season has turned into a "Remember when that was the case" and then we all toast beers and laugh. Kimbrel has been surprising, but not as surprising as you might think. His ability to miss bats (14.19K/9) is unreal. I mean, not even Tommy "Franchise" Lally in MLB The Show misses bats at that clip. I see this guy as a top 10 closer for many years to come. Congrats, Atlanta.

10. Huston Street, COL; 12 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.71 K/9: Not as in love with this guy as I used to be at one point. Street had an amazing start to the season but has cooled off considerably. I will give him the benefit of the doubt as his hot start and subsequent cool off could also be attributed to the fact that the Rockies decided to stop winning games at the end of April.

11. Jose Valverde, DET; 10 SV, 1.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.00 K/9: A late season leg injury had many scared to invest here, but it shouldn't be surprising that he looks like the same big-boned, thick-framed, high-socked dealer he has been his whole career. If Valverde can stay healthy he remains a borderline top 10 closer for the remainder of 2011.

12. Fransisco Cordero, CIN; 7 SV, 1.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.38 K/9: For years now, it seems as though every Reds game is a nail biter, yet without even being one of the top options talent-wise, Cordero ends up walking away with 45 saves.  He also challenged Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan to a 1D fight last night after hitting Pujlos in the wrist. I don't know whats more surprising, the fact that Cordero beaned Albert with runners on in the 9th to face Berkman, or the fact that the only reason why Cordero and Duncan didn't shoot the ones was because Kyle Lohse was holding him back.

13. Fransisco Rodriguez, NYM; 12 SV, 0.92 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.07 K/9: It is hard to see a guy with such good numbers, especially ERA (.092) be someone you have to call the "Magician" when entering games in the 9th inning. K-Rod is walking way too many batters and it seems as though every time he is in there he makes it as hard as possible on himself to collect a save. If he doesn't start finding the plate more, the surface numbers you see above will drastically change for the worse and he might never see his kids again.

14. Drew Storen, WAS; 8 SV, 0.40 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 7.15 K/9: What a difference a change in his mechanics has made. After briefly loosing the role to Sean Burnett, Storen has been lights out. The Nationals acquired this young man to close so I knew his long term job was never in jeopardy, but now with his revamped delivery he seems unstoppable. Drew has not allowed a run since April 5th, and has survived 17 consecutive appearances without a scratch.

15. Joel Hanrahan, PIT; 11 SV, 1.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.86 K/9: As a sleeper target in most drafts, even I am impressed with they way he has been playing. His 99 MPH fastball has gotten him out of some tough spots, as he is still not a "Sure Thing" like some of the hurlers at the beginning of this list. I put Hanrahan in the same boat as K-Rod. If he can stop making every appearance look like some Houdini performance, he should continue to be a pleasant surprise for those owners who drafted him in the 24th round and beyond (i.e., This Guy).

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