The Hits Just Keep on Coming

After allowing 10+ hits in three straight starts, even Yadier has no advice for Chris Carpenter.

            At Wrigley Field last night, Cardinals right-hander Chris Carpenter notched his first win of the campaign, a headline that would seem much more fitting were it the first weekend of the season.  While the news may still be comforting to some owners, the fact that the win came for Carpy after allowing four earned runs and 13 hits has this Carpenter owner shaking his head.

            The former Cy Young winner, whose given name is not in fact “Christopher WHIP Carpenter” as I proclaimed on draft day this year, has struggled at the start of 2011.  He gave up 10 hits in each of his two previous starts before last night, and the Cards are just 2-6 in games in which he got the nod (although Ryan Franklin and Mitchell Boggs both have something to do with that).  Yet Carpenter’s WHIP, what I thought was his namesake statistic, has ballooned to 1.46, up nearly 30 percentage points from a year ago, and nearly 20 points above his career average since joining St. Louis.  His BB/9 and K/9 numbers seem pretty true to form, so please tell me, why then do the hits keep on coming?

               

             Well for one thing, the guy is old.  While his arm was surgically repaired just three years ago, it could be that on the wrong side of 35 (he turned 36 on April 27), the rest of Carpy’s body can’t keep up.  If that’s the case, then the evidence would be in his fastball, and if you own Carpenter like I do, you might want to stop reading here.

Still with me?  Okay, it’s not quite that bad when you look deeper, but on the surface some of these numbers are a little scary.  Opponents are hitting .273 this year when Carpenter throws a fastball, understandably a go-to pitch for him when he falls behind a batter.  No problem- a lot of pitchers give up hits on fastballs thrown in fastball counts.  Unfortunately for Carpenter (as well as myself and others like me), he’s falling behind batters at a rate unheard of for a guy like him.

But since its only May and I don’t start shitting on guys on my teams until at least the end of June, there is still some silver lining.  First and foremost, when a guy gets old, the velocity tends to go before the command.  Carpy’s still lighting up the gun exactly as he did a year ago.   Secondly, not one of those 13 hits he surrendered last night went for extra bases, indicating that hitters aren’t squaring up the heater as well as it would seem.  As I mentioned, the K’s are still right around average for Carpenter, meaning it could be a problem with control and not a “stuff” issue that would point to him being over the hill.  Finally, he’s got Dave Duncan by his side, and if anyone can help you work out a control issue, it’s probably going to be him.

So while his age and injuries past may catch up with Carpenter before long, it probably won’t be this year.  Have confidence in the veteran and stick with him for a few more outings.  There hasn’t been a pitcher yet who’s better when he’s behind in the count, so while it may be wishful thinking, I’ll give Carpy the chance to get back on track.  The Guru might tell you to deal him, but Coach Lap will always preach patience.  When your pitchers struggle, it’s for a reason, so make sure you dig deep to find out if it’s not something he can work through.