Rox RHP Jouhlys Chacin went six innings last night in a ND, striking out five but walking an alarming six batters. Pitching Coach Bob Apodaca: not so pleased.
Coming into the 2011 season Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin was one of those diamond in the rough players at the bottom of draft boards that made our eyes light up. It was a name that we couldn’t go five minutes without saying, a name that I felt the need to bring up anytime I wanted to display some of my fantasy genius on other people, and it was a name that a bout with dyslexia left me pronouncing repeatedly as “Joshy Chachin.”
Regardless of how I said it, Coach Lap and I knew he would become a household name by the end of the season. Off the bat, some may be turned off by the fact that he pitches in Colorado. To those Negative Nancy’s I say it’s all just a mirage. Jhoulys is sporting a squeaky clean 1.24 ERA at Coors Field this season, and his eight strikeout complete game against the Cubs came while wearing home whites. His ERA on the road this season is actually far worse, standing at 5.00 on the dot. Neither of us think this is an immediate cause for concern, as last year, Joshy had a 2.44 ERA away from the Mile High, and a respectable 3.98 while pitching in the ballpark that we all know can turn any slap hitter into a superstar.
I can sit here all day and explain why Jhoulys is the biggest pitching bargain in the draft, for the most part going in the 170-180 range overall. Yet even with all the late season success last year and his good start to 2011, there may still be some nagging doubts. I know, I know. You’re saying to yourself “Wait, the Guru just totally sucked this guy off and now he’s giving me a ‘But Wait’?” Well, yes actually, yes I am. In Fantasy, like in life, you have to make sure you don’t fall in love with your players as you would a cheating, whoring girlfriend, and hear me out. Developing too much of an early love of a player and the stats he gets for your team can be dangerous. It can cloud your judgment; it can make you no longer be able to value the player for what he is, but more of what you want him to be.
I say this for one reason: on the surface, Chacin’s 4-2 record, 2.68 Era and 37K’s in 47 innings looks great. Do NOT get me wrong. These numbers are sweet, especially out of a young pitcher in a position where consistency is a long lost virtue. With Joshy, the one thing I have to question, like any good Fantasy Baseball manager should, is that very virtue. Over his last two starts Joshy’s K:BB sits at 13:10 which to me, puts up a red flag. Over these same two starts, he has only given up 5 hits. That’s right, 5 hits combined in 13 innings. This is obviously something that he will not be able to keep up, meaning that all those walks will likely be driven around to score. Last season he only allowed free passes to 61 batters. This year his walk total is already sitting at 19, with 10 of them coming in his last 13 innings pitched. Dude walked 6 Mets last night, alone.
If Chacin wants to be successful this season he really needs to settle things down. He needs to learn to control his secondary pitches and not get behind batters. Last night he fell behind over 50 percent of batters faced and was lucky to get out alive while only surrendering a lone run. The combination of pitching in Coors, getting behind batters (which will increase Opp. BA) and walking batters at a supremely high rate is likely going to catch up with him sooner rather than later.
With that being said here is what I want you to take away from this: I love Joshy. I love him so much I almost irresponsibly ordered a number 45 Rockies Cool Base jersey from MLB Shop for 250 bucks. Twice. That is not the point, the point is that you should enjoy early season successes. Enjoy being right about a guy that you would have bet your mother's wedding ring on before draft day. Just always make sure you take things with a grain of salt. Jhoulys Chacin will be a household name before season’s end, with the possibility of being a top 20 option in all of baseball. All I am saying is that when it comes to young pitchers, make sure you know their weaknesses; make sure you can look past the bro-mance and remember that the box score tells 1,000 words, with 960 of them never even being read.
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